Coronavirus’s Potential Impact on Amateur Radio

Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a big deal. Even if you think, “oh, the flu is worse,” or, “oh, it’s not in my backyard,” it’s still a massive global health emergency. It’s killed over 4,000 and infected over 100,000 worldwide as of 11 March 2020.

Coronavirus is not your regular run-of-the-mill flu. It disproportionately affects those who are older and have pre-existing immune system deficiencies. According to WorldOMeters (which provides up-to-date statistical tallies based on Chinese records), the following is a chart of current mortality by age:

AGE	DEATH RATE*
80+ years old	14.8%
70-79 years old	8.0%
60-69 years old	3.6%
50-59 years old	1.3%
40-49 years old	0.4%
30-39 years old	0.2%
20-29 years old	0.2%
10-19 years old	0.2%
0-9 years old	no fatalities

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.

And here’s data from N8RMA’s State of the Hobby Survey, showing the makeup of age among amateur radio licensees (given it’s inherent biases, it’s the best data we hams have publicly that I am aware of):

Age	Percentage of Hams (2019)
65 and older	35.18%
55-64 years old	30.45%
45-54 years old	16.19%
35-44 years old	10.33%
25-34 years old	4.78%
15-24 years old	2.75%
Under 15	0.32%

I see an issue here. About 70% of (surveyed) hams are over age 50, and the death rate probability for people over 50 infected with Coronavirus averages to be 7.9%, and that’s just considering age. Risks are also high for males, people with cardiovascular disease, high blood pressure, diabeties, and cancer. That means if COVID-19 were to infect everyone, ham radio might – quite literally – face an existential crisis. So we’ve got to keep the spread to a minimum.

Cancellations

As such, some amateur radio meetings have been canceled. As of posting (11 March), the HamSCI Workshop and the Visalia DX conference has been canceled. Numerous smaller local and regional hamfests have also been canceled for the months of March and April.

Hamvention has not yet canceled. Being later in May, it’s still too early to tell if COVID-19 will have an impact vs. other events like NAB, SXSW, Cochella, among other large events that have also been canceled but are in April.

I still plan to attend but seeing that the WHO has classified COVID-19 as a pandemic, and Ohio has a few cases, I wholly suspect we’ll hear something from Hamvention organizers very soon.

Update: The ARRL has an exhaustive list of all ham radio event cancellations here: http://www.arrl.org/news/visalia-international-dx-convention-other-events-cancelled-due-to-coronavirus-worries and here: http://www.arrl.org/canceledHamfests.php

Supply Chain Impacts

All of Asia took a massive hit, and so for the coming months one can imagine that it will take it’s toll on the global electronics supply chain. I haven’t heard of any big ham radio gear rumors, but surely this will squash any if there were for at least the next few months.

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I don’t mean to be alarmist, but also I kind of do. The WHO is sounding the alarm loud and clear, so now is the time to put precautionary measures into effect.

Things you can do to avoid Coronavirus (and getting sick in general):

1. Wash your hands, like this, and DO NOT skimp out on soap or wash for less than 20 seconds.
2. Don’t touch your face or frequently touched surfaces unnecessarily.
3. Use hand sanitizer (>60% Alcohol) when soap and water is not available.
4. Cough and sneeze into your arm in a downward facing direction away from people or common areas/surfaces.
5. Avoid air travel and public transit.
6. Avoid large gatherings of people.
7. If you do have to go out around many people, wear a mask in public. Contrary to CDC guidance, masks prevent respiratory infection. If you do happen to have an N95 mask lying around in your wood shop, it might help block aerosolized spit particles from entering your lungs directly, which is how a majority of infectious respiratory disease is transmitted.
8. Have at least 2 months of water and non-perishable food stored in a safe place at home.
9. Stay informed with CDC information.
10. Consider postponing your big Disney vacation or cruise in the next few months.
11. If you’re older, consider self-quarantine, like telling your kids and grandkids to not visit for a while and avoid stores and other establishments during peak-hours.
12. Share this information with friends.

Finally, if you’re sick, for goodness sake, stay home. People not staying home when they have flu-like symptoms is the reason why this disease is spreading so easily. Call your local health department for guidance and testing if needed.

Things you should not do:

1. Use essential oils, colloidal silver, or anything marketed as a “cure” without any scientific basis as a means of preventing disease.
2. Hoard masks, GermX, toilet paper, and disinfectant wipes (or sell them at ungodly prices)
3. Vote in an administration that inadequately prepares for pandemics and fires the entire U.S. Pandemic Response Team created during the Ebola outbreak.
4. Panic sell all of your stock. This is a good time to buy!
5. Panic in general.